Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Tuesday 14 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 23610 (+1509) 586377 (+26131) 36218 (+3981) 526549 (+20641)
Italy 20465 (+566) 159516 (+3153) 35435 (+1224) 103616 (+1363)
Spain 17756 (+547) 170099 (+3268) 64727 (+2336) 87616 (+385)
France 14967 (+574) 136779 (+4188) 27718 (+532) 94094 (+3082)
United Kingdom 11329 (+717) 88621 (+4342) 0 (-344) 77292 (+3969)
Iran 4585 (+111) 73303 (+1617) 45983 (+2089) 22735 (-583)
Belgium 3903 (+303) 30589 (+942) 6707 (+244) 19979 (+395)
China 3341 (+2) 82160 (+108) 77663 (+88) 1156 (+18)
Germany 3194 (+172) 130072 (+2218) 64300 (+4000) 62578 (-1954)
Netherlands 2823 (+86) 26551 (+964) 250 (+0) 23478 (+878)
Brazil 1328 (+105) 23430 (+1238) 173 (+0) 21929 (+1133)
Turkey 1296 (+98) 61049 (+4093) 3957 (+511) 55796 (+3484)
Switzerland 1138 (+32) 25688 (+273) 13700 (+1000) 10850 (-759)
Sweden 919 (+20) 10948 (+465) 381 (+0) 9648 (+445)
Canada 780 (+67) 25680 (+1388) 7756 (+650) 17144 (+671)
Portugal 535 (+31) 16934 (+349) 277 (+0) 16122 (+318)
Indonesia 399 (+26) 4557 (+316) 380 (+21) 3778 (+269)
Austria 368 (+18) 14041 (+96) 7343 (+356) 6330 (-278)
Ireland 365 (+31) 10647 (+992) 25 (+0) 10257 (+961)
India 358 (+27) 10453 (+1248) 1181 (+101) 8914 (+1120)
Ecuador 355 (+22) 7529 (+63) 597 (+96) 6577 (-55)
Romania 331 (+15) 6633 (+333) 914 (+62) 5388 (+256)
Philippines 315 (+18) 4932 (+284) 242 (+45) 4375 (+221)
Algeria 313 (+20) 1983 (+69) 601 (+10) 1069 (+39)
Mexico 296 (+23) 4661 (+442) 1843 (+71) 2522 (+348)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 116245 (+5413) 1841050 (+71615) 365876 (+20628)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 121158 ( +5112) 1878694 ( +58677) 387056 ( +20690)
Wed 15 April 2020 125888 ( +4729) 1932241 ( +53547) 406526 ( +19471)
Thu 16 April 2020 130223 ( +4335) 1980769 ( +48528) 424643 ( +18117)
Fri 17 April 2020 134163 ( +3940) 2024473 ( +43704) 441323 ( +16680)
Sat 18 April 2020 137717 ( +3554) 2063611 ( +39138) 456531 ( +15209)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 3341 (+2) 82160 (+108) 77663 (+88)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 3279 ( +0) 81179 ( +0) 76519 ( +23)
Wed 15 April 2020 3279 ( +0) 81179 ( +0) 76538 ( +20)
Thu 16 April 2020 3279 ( +0) 81179 ( +0) 76556 ( +17)
Fri 17 April 2020 3279 ( +0) 81179 ( +0) 76571 ( +15)
Sat 18 April 2020 3279 ( +0) 81179 ( +0) 76584 ( +13)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 17756 (+547) 170099 (+3268) 64727 (+2336)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 17425 ( +248) 168190 ( +1944) 65745 ( +1955)
Wed 15 April 2020 17631 ( +206) 169829 ( +1639) 67412 ( +1667)
Thu 16 April 2020 17802 ( +171) 171206 ( +1377) 68819 ( +1408)
Fri 17 April 2020 17944 ( +141) 172360 ( +1153) 69998 ( +1179)
Sat 18 April 2020 18060 ( +116) 173324 ( +964) 70979 ( +981)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 20465 (+566) 159516 (+3153) 35435 (+1224)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 20067 ( +246) 154284 ( +1484) 36061 ( +1316)
Wed 15 April 2020 20281 ( +214) 155587 ( +1302) 37307 ( +1247)
Thu 16 April 2020 20467 ( +186) 156726 ( +1140) 38481 ( +1173)
Fri 17 April 2020 20627 ( +160) 157721 ( +995) 39579 ( +1098)
Sat 18 April 2020 20765 ( +138) 158589 ( +868) 40601 ( +1022)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 11329 (+717) 88621 (+4342) 0 (-344)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 11955 ( +651) 92387 ( +4375) 256 ( +13)
Wed 15 April 2020 12530 ( +574) 96420 ( +4033) 270 ( +14)
Thu 16 April 2020 13028 ( +498) 100096 ( +3676) 285 ( +15)
Fri 17 April 2020 13454 ( +426) 103414 ( +3318) 301 ( +16)
Sat 18 April 2020 13814 ( +360) 106380 ( +2967) 317 ( +17)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 23610 (+1509) 586377 (+26131) 36218 (+3981)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 25120 ( +1446) 597508 ( +20018) 35450 ( +1387)
Wed 15 April 2020 26408 ( +1287) 615068 ( +17560) 36619 ( +1169)
Thu 16 April 2020 27534 ( +1126) 630326 ( +15258) 37592 ( +972)
Fri 17 April 2020 28504 ( +970) 643474 ( +13148) 38391 ( +799)
Sat 18 April 2020 29328 ( +824) 654722 ( +11248) 39042 ( +651)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 14967 (+574) 136779 (+4188) 27718 (+532)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 15625 ( +538) 144230 ( +4404) 35656 ( +3430)
Wed 15 April 2020 16084 ( +459) 148160 ( +3930) 39451 ( +3795)
Thu 16 April 2020 16472 ( +388) 151641 ( +3481) 43650 ( +4199)
Fri 17 April 2020 16795 ( +324) 154702 ( +3061) 48297 ( +4646)
Sat 18 April 2020 17064 ( +269) 157378 ( +2676) 53437 ( +5141)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 3194 (+172) 130072 (+2218) 64300 (+4000)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 3317 ( +122) 129809 ( +1706) 67944 ( +3238)
Wed 15 April 2020 3422 ( +105) 131267 ( +1458) 70812 ( +2869)
Thu 16 April 2020 3510 ( +88) 132509 ( +1242) 73319 ( +2507)
Fri 17 April 2020 3584 ( +74) 133563 ( +1054) 75482 ( +2163)
Sat 18 April 2020 3645 ( +61) 134455 ( +892) 77329 ( +1847)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 2823 (+86) 26551 (+964) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 2864 ( +68) 26159 ( +609) 250 ( +0)
Wed 15 April 2020 2922 ( +58) 26702 ( +543) 250 ( +0)
Thu 16 April 2020 2970 ( +48) 27184 ( +482) 250 ( +0)
Fri 17 April 2020 3011 ( +40) 27609 ( +425) 250 ( +0)
Sat 18 April 2020 3044 ( +34) 27983 ( +374) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 3903 (+303) 30589 (+942) 6707 (+244)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 4243 ( +314) 30664 ( +809) 6876 ( +259)
Wed 15 April 2020 4539 ( +296) 31378 ( +714) 7102 ( +226)
Thu 16 April 2020 4813 ( +274) 32004 ( +625) 7297 ( +195)
Fri 17 April 2020 5063 ( +250) 32548 ( +545) 7463 ( +166)
Sat 18 April 2020 5287 ( +224) 33020 ( +472) 7604 ( +141)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 919 (+20) 10948 (+465) 381 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 1002 ( +38) 11529 ( +485) 410 ( +18)
Wed 15 April 2020 1034 ( +32) 11995 ( +466) 425 ( +15)
Thu 16 April 2020 1061 ( +27) 12440 ( +445) 438 ( +13)
Fri 17 April 2020 1082 ( +22) 12863 ( +423) 449 ( +11)
Sat 18 April 2020 1100 ( +18) 13262 ( +399) 457 ( +9)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 245 (+13) 6934 (+260) 487 (+48)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 263 ( +16) 7206 ( +272) 526 ( +44)
Wed 15 April 2020 278 ( +15) 7453 ( +247) 564 ( +38)
Thu 16 April 2020 291 ( +13) 7675 ( +221) 597 ( +33)
Fri 17 April 2020 302 ( +11) 7872 ( +197) 624 ( +27)
Sat 18 April 2020 312 ( +10) 8046 ( +174) 646 ( +22)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 1138 (+32) 25688 (+273) 13700 (+1000)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 1152 ( +30) 25218 ( +194) 13592 ( +368)
Wed 15 April 2020 1177 ( +26) 25382 ( +164) 13882 ( +290)
Thu 16 April 2020 1199 ( +22) 25519 ( +138) 14109 ( +226)
Fri 17 April 2020 1218 ( +19) 25635 ( +116) 14283 ( +175)
Sat 18 April 2020 1234 ( +16) 25732 ( +97) 14417 ( +134)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 4585 (+111) 73303 (+1617) 45983 (+2089)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 14 April 2020 4466 ( +56) 75672 ( +1616) 50866 ( +4294)
Wed 15 April 2020 4516 ( +50) 77174 ( +1502) 55556 ( +4690)
Thu 16 April 2020 4561 ( +45) 78565 ( +1391) 60679 ( +5123)
Fri 17 April 2020 4601 ( +40) 79849 ( +1284) 66274 ( +5595)
Sat 18 April 2020 4637 ( +35) 81030 ( +1181) 72384 ( +6111)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.